Conventional wisdom is that a recession is characterized by two metrics moving in the opposite direction for a sustained period. Economic output falls and unemployment rises.That's not what’s happening now - not exactly, anyway.
"If you’re not a little confused about the economy, you’re not paying attention. " Harvard economist and former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted last week.
On Twitter, Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao called the disconnect between the rising number of people newly filling for unemployment and the almost static number of ongoing claims "weired "
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded somewhat baffled in a central banker economic forum in Portugal last month,"I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation " he said.
"People have been put throught the wringer these last two year" said Mark Zandi.
University of Michigan data showed the consumer sentiment tumbled to a record low between May and June.
"The economy depends on expectation and expectations depend on the economy. "
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